The last post came out on 12th December 2023, and despite writing multiple drafts on the 2023 wrap-up about shows, books, themes, etc, I decided to take a break for December, and now I am back. I am more motivated than before to continue this writing sprint every 2 weeks. Overwhelmed by my subscribers' positive feedback, responses and insights, I plan to add more new topics of interest to this substack.
So, let's jump into it, shall we? I want to start by putting together some themes that I believe will affect our lives somehow. Inspired by the very famous/ infamous Scott Galloway, here are my top predictions for 2024.
#1 India story is here to stay in 2024. It is happening as we speak!
Spending the month of December in India has convinced me that the India story that is being told is here to stay, at least for the next couple of years. Everything is running at max capacity already: cinemas, flights, airports, railway stations, airport lounges, you name it! One can build any new infrastructure service or asset, and there is a demand for it like never before. The Indian consumer is coming of age, and the growing consumption trend coupled with increased spending power (still marginal by global stds) is finally being seen all around. While capital markets might be inflated or due to correction, the mid-term outlook remains as optimistic as ever. India has a big big gap to catch up to China and this seems like we took the first few steps in our massive catchup exercise.
What does this mean for you? Indian startups and capital markets are ripe for investments if you are outside looking in. Alternatively, many innovations are happening at an astounding pace - worth a steal.
#2 “Luxury” will become mainstream; driven by business models that open access for larger aspirational class
One of the most prominent themes of the post-pandemic world has been the rise of democratisation of previously considered elite services for the larger aspirational crowd. We saw the rise of businesses that fractionalized private air travel, expensive dining experiences, renting luxurious properties for a few days, and even flying to remote islands. What YouTube did through its platform by making ordinary people influencers and giving closely guarded groups of celebrities a run for their money will become more commonplace. It's already happening with the rise of the second-hand luxury watch market - bringing an entirely new set of aspiration customers by opening up previously restrictive boundaries. Just look at the pace of growth of 2nd hand luxury watches below. Where will it happen next?
My friend group believes that golf is next and ripe for the same access. Its already happened in markets like Korea. Additionally, I believe we will see new business models of sharing luxury out there.
#3 Startups will become unsexy again despite the recovery in funding globally (except India)
With the recent layoffs at Lazada in SG and many more companies grinding through the funding winter - the glorified story of wealth creation through startup successes will get their reality check. This will be despite funding returning to its better-than-2023 state. More examples will be available to convince yourself not to join one. But maybe this is the best time to be in one; you ask why? My take on this: as the funding wave recedes this time, the only ones floating would be the ones there for the right reason - making it easier to make an appropriate choice.
What does this mean for you esp. if you already work in one? If you are doing a good job and are valuable, this might be the time to press your advantage and negotiate your position for that well-deserved promotion and higher ESOP package.
#4 Governments will hit back against larger Social Tech Giants
This is the year that governments relook at their relationship with social media platforms, especially in the Eastern world. More regulations, more local data requirements and higher scrutiny on expansion.
While the West will paint the story around protecting its citizens, especially younger folks, the emerging Eastern powers will focus on predatory measures unfavouring local competitors. What started with Indonesia banning TikTok Shop in Indonesia will become more mainstream through the regular bouts of taxation and restrictions - and will require new norms of normalcy.
Only time will tell if this is an excellent/ not-so-good move for the industry. Below is a snippet put out by the EDRi to explain how they perceive the more significant big-tech-related issues.
Do you agree with EDRI’s campaign?
#5 The year when Electric takes away the pot
If you doubt whether the electric form factor is here to stay, all your doubts will be evident this year. The death of the big fat oil engine continues to dominate the market because EV vehicle upfront costs are higher (will change this year with new tech bringing down the cost of batteries) and lower than required supply (which is changing massively with new plants coming up). The market-determined inflexion point across industries is usually set at 10% penetration. With 23 countries passing that point in 2023, 2024 will be the year when we get closer to this number, much more than before.
In 2021, they projected this production cost curve, but realistically, the industry is running faster than these projections.
While everyone is focused on personal 4-wheel mobility, this change is happening at immense speeds in the shared mobility space and 2-wheeler mobility space. All naysayers will finally be in the same camp as “flat earth believers” from here on.
#6 Dual skills will become the norm at your workplace again
Dual skills will become a norm; what does this mean? A product manager can read a financial statement; a salesperson can run a product demo, an engineering lead can write good PRDs, and an ops person can write SQL.
Value creation will be beyond the concerted lines of defined job scopes.
#7 “Individual Pvt. Ltd” success stories will become more commonplace
I literally invented this word as I looked to rewrite small-scale solopreneurs. With the advent of maximising no-code tools in the market and the eventual capture of platforms for everything - building a company and accomplishing a personal agenda would be more accessible than ever. Yes, AI helps, but it is driven more so by the desire to live a different life. I recently met a British chef-on-hire who lives 4 months in Koh Samui a year! Think about that.
In the end, I leave you with some themes that didn’t make the final cut of this substack:
Crypto will attempt to capture mainstream interest without much success
Big CPG companies will finally feel the pinch of DTC, value brands in markets
Hope you have a great start to the year!
If you are a founder/ tech operator touching any of these themes mentioned here, I would love to chat and discuss more on how these themes would evolve. Do reach out at pranjal.kalra1@gmail.com.